@Article{DalagnoldaSilvaBormMateRodr:2017:AsClCh,
               author = "Dalagnol da Silva, Ricardo and Borma, Laura de Simone and Mateus, 
                         Pedro and Rodriguez, Daniel Andres",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources of the 
                         Purus Basin in the southwestern Amazon",
              journal = "Acta Amazonica",
                 year = "2017",
               volume = "47",
               number = "3",
                pages = "213--226",
             keywords = "climate change, hydrologic modeling, adaptation, mudan{\c{c}}as 
                         clim{\'a}ticas, modelagem hidrol{\'o}gica, 
                         adapta{\c{c}}{\~a}o.",
             abstract = "Knowledge about water resources is critical for climate adaptation 
                         in face of long-term changes and more frequent extreme events 
                         occurrence. During the major droughts of 2005 and 2010, a large 
                         epicenter was located in the southwestern Amazon over the Purus 
                         River Basin. In this sense, we conducted a hydrological simulation 
                         in this basin to assess the climate change impacts on its water 
                         resources throughout the 21st century. The water balance was 
                         simulated using the Distributed Hydrological Model (MHD-INPE). The 
                         future climate projections were simulated by the regional ETA-INPE 
                         model driven by a 4-member HadCM3 global model regarding the 
                         A1B-AR4/IPCC scenario of greenhouse gases emissions. As simulated 
                         by the ETA-INPE/ HadCM3, the 4-members mean response for the A1B 
                         scenario represents a rainfall reduction of up to 11.1%, a 
                         temperature increase of up to 4.4 °C, and a wind speed increase of 
                         up to 8.4% in the Purus Basin by the end of 21st century. Under 
                         these conditions, the discharge projections represent an overall 
                         27% decrease in the Purus Basin with different patterns between 
                         dry and wet season, as well as changes in seasonality trends. The 
                         consequences of projected climate change are severe and will 
                         probably have a great impact upon natural ecosystem maintenance 
                         and human subsistence. In a climate change adaptation process, the 
                         preservation of the natural forest cover of the Purus Basin may 
                         have great importance in water retention. RESUMO: O conhecimento 
                         sobre os recursos h{\'{\i}}dricos {\'e} cr{\'{\i}}tico para a 
                         adapta{\c{c}}{\~a}o diante das mudan{\c{c}}as de longo prazo e 
                         ocorr{\^e}ncia mais frequente de eventos extremos. Nas grandes 
                         secas de 2005 e 2010, um grande epicentro foi localizado no 
                         sudoeste da Amaz{\^o}nia sobre a Bacia do Rio Purus. Nesse 
                         sentido, foi realizada uma simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o hidrol{\'o}gica 
                         nessa bacia, para avaliar os impactos das mudan{\c{c}}as 
                         clim{\'a}ticas sobre seus recursos h{\'{\i}}dricos ao longo do 
                         s{\'e}culo 21. O balan{\c{c}}o h{\'{\i}}drico foi simulado 
                         utilizando o modelo hidrol{\'o}gico distribu{\'{\i}}do 
                         (MHD-INPE). As proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas futuras foram 
                         simuladas pelo modelo regional ETA-INPE for{\c{c}}ado por 4 
                         membros do modelo global HadCM3 sobre o cen{\'a}rio de 
                         emiss{\~o}es de gases de efeito estufa A1B-AR4/IPCC. Como 
                         simulado pelo ETA-INPE/HadCM3, a resposta m{\'e}dia dos 4 membros 
                         para o cen{\'a}rio A1B representa uma redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 
                         chuvas em at{\'e} 11,1%, aumento de temperatura em at{\'e} 4,4 
                         °C, e aumento da velocidade do vento em at{\'e} 8,4% para a Bacia 
                         do Purus at{\'e} o fim do s{\'e}culo 21. Sob essas 
                         condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es, as proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es de descarga 
                         representam uma diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o global de 27% na Bacia do 
                         Purus, com diferentes padr{\~o}es entre as esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         seca e {\'u}mida, bem como mudan{\c{c}}as nas tend{\^e}ncias 
                         sazonais. As consequ{\^e}ncias das mudan{\c{c}}as 
                         clim{\'a}ticas projetadas s{\~a}o severas e provavelmente 
                         ter{\~a}o um grande impacto sobre a manuten{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos 
                         ecossistemas naturais e subsist{\^e}ncia humana. Em um processo 
                         de adapta{\c{c}}{\~a}o a mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas, a 
                         preserva{\c{c}}{\~a}o da cobertura florestal natural da Bacia do 
                         Purus pode ter grande import{\^a}ncia na reten{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 
                         {\'a}gua.",
                  doi = "10.1590/1809-4392201601993",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1809-4392201601993",
                 issn = "0044-5967",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "dalagnol_assessment.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}